Power, Immigration, and the Mattei Plan
Throughout her tenure as Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni has stressed the importance of forging a new era of cooperation with Africa. To achieve that, she has initiated the Mattei Plan, a new partnership between Italy and African countries that departs from the previous predatory approaches that has prevented Africa from achieving its full potential. As part of the partnership, Meloni hopes to create the conditions that allow Africans to flourish in their country of origin, without feeling the need to move elsewhere. In her opening address at the Italy-Africa Summit in January 2024, Meloni laments, “Here in Europe we have often talked about the right to emigrate, but we have barely ever spoken about the right not to be forced to emigrate, and not have to cut your roots in search of a better life.” Thus, a key goal of the Mattei Plan is to stem the tide of migrants reaching Italy.
While ensuring the ability to flourish without having to emigrate may be a noble goal, reducing immigration into Italy may hurt the country in the long run. According to John Mearsheimer, the primary objective of a state is to ensure its own survival. To do so, a state is driven to expand its power and dominate its region in order to fend off any threats. State power is a function of two variables: population and wealth. Both are needed to forge a strong military that is able to achieve regional hegemony. A strong military requires manpower and resources. By attempting to reduce migration into Italy, the Mattei Plan could undermine the latent power of Italy by diminishing its population and human capital.
As a country develops, its birth rate should fall as more women are entering the workforce and delaying having a child. Currently, Italy’s fertility rate is 1.24 children per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain a stable population. Italy is also an aging country, with nearly a quarter of the country above the age of 65. The result is a population decrease of 3% between 2022 and 2023.
Italy’s declining population is hindering its ability to maintain its power. Its aging population will cause economic strains due to the diversion of government funds to welfare. The extremely low birth rate will lead to both labor shortages and a reduction in human capital, which is a necessary component of innovation and technological advancement. There will be less people who can devise new ideas, causing Italy to fall behind other countries in technological achievement, diminishing its relative power. Due to the disadvantages of a naturally shrinking population, Italy would be wise to increase immigration to make up for that gap.
Immigrants can benefit the host society by augmenting the labor force and by increasing human capital. However, in order for immigrants to contribute to the host society, they must be able to integrate. Only by having a sense of belonging in the host society will immigrants be incentivized to contribute to it. Thus, it makes sense for Italy to try to welcome and integrate the migrants who arrive on its shores.
Italy is taking a different approach by not making an effort to integrate the new immigrants into their society. Many native-born Italians do not consider the new immigrants and their children to be real Italians. A 2021 poll found that 77% of Italians think that the current level of immigration into the country is too high. As a result, many immigrants live in segregated areas where they do not feel the need to integrate or to contribute to Italian society. The ostracization of immigrants in Italy is a national security risk, as they might not be loyal to Italy in a crisis since they do not feel like they belong. By properly integrating immigrants in Italy, the state can ensure that immigrants benefit Italian society and that they will stay loyal to the country in times of crisis. The current context of immigration is not conducive to allowing immigrants to benefit Italian society.
The Mattei Plan aims to reset Italy-Africa relations and make Italy a strong player in the region. There are many aspects of the plan that seeks to increase Italy’s wealth and regional influence. However, an analysis on the demographic implications of the Mattei Plan proves that it may harm Italy in the long run. Meloni acknowledges that migrants will continue to come to Europe “unless the root causes that drive people to leave their homes are addressed.” The Mattei Plan aims to do that, improving conditions in their home countries so that they do not need to leave. But by doing so, Italy would be missing out on a diverse array of human potential that could have a meaningful contribution to Italian society. Using power and immigration as a lens to understanding the Mattei Plan, it could end up harming Italy in the long run by hampering its ability to prepare for future challenges.